South Africa: Opportunities and Challenges for a Regional Pivotal Role

African Studies Association (ASA) suggests that South Africa is regarded as the most influential country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Its economic power, political driving force in the African Union (AU), AU peace missions, foreign aid, regional initiatives (e.g. The New Partnership for Africa’s Development – NEPAD)
and potential impacts on governance in countries of the region, range this state among emerging middle power.

The term ‘emerging power’ is a broad and vague category; there is no exact and
agreed upon definition. To be described as an emerging power, a country usually needs to be large (both regarding geographic extension and population, though not always, as it is the case of Japan) and poorer on a per capita basis than industrialized countries, though there is no clear definition of when a country ceases to ‘emerge.’ Given its advantages, governments have an interest in depicting themselves as such. In the same way, investment banks are keen to identify emerging markets with above-average growth potential or their clients. One important part of the literature on emerging powers looks at international power transition in history, and how the arrival of new great powers changes global dynamics. Another, currently larger and more visible part, looks at contemporary emerging powers. For the latter, predictions and estimates about future growth matter greatly. Yet the question of which country qualifies as an emerging power is always contested and in flux. The difficulty in predicting the future explains why some analyses in this realm often lack serious empirical and theoretical scholarship.

South Africa, is the southernmost country on the African continent. It is known by its varied topography, natural resources, and cultural diversity. The country is bordered by Namibia to the northwest, by Botswana and Zimbabwe to the north, and by Mozambique and Swaziland to the northeast and east. Lesotho, an independent country, is an enclave in the eastern part of the republic, entirely surrounded by South African territory.

With the apartheid  system, the government, controlled by the minority white population, enforced segregation between government-defined races in housing,
education, and virtually all spheres of life, creating in effect three nations: one of whites (consisting of peoples primarily of British and Dutch [Boer] ancestry); one of blacks; and one of “Coloreds” (mixed-race people) and ethnic Asians (Indians,Malays, Filipinos, and Chinese). By the mid-1980s South Africa found itself among the world’s pariah states because of the Apartheid regime, being the subject of economic and cultural boycotts that affected almost every aspect of life.

The Afrikaners are descendants of Europeans who arrived in South Africa in the seventeenth century. They speak their own language, Afrikaans, which is derived from Dutch. The Afrikaners originate from the first permanent settlement of Dutch colonists in 1652, though their development has also been influenced by the French Huguenots (Protestants) who came to South Africa as they fled from Catholic France, as well as by German settlers. The white population in the Cape numbered 240,000 by the mid-1870s and constituted about one-third of the colony’s population. Although by this time some two-thirds of the settler population spoke Dutch or Afrikaans, political power rested largely with an English-speaking elite of merchants, lawyers, and landholders.

The Union of South Africa was born on May 31, 1910, created by a constitutional convention (in Durban in 1908) and an act of the British Parliament (1909). The infant state owed its conception to centralizing and modernizing forces generated by mineral discoveries, and its character was shaped by eight years of “reconstruction” between 1902 and 1910. During that period, efficient administrative structures were created, however, the new constitution excluded blacks from political power. Racial segregation was further developed through policies proposed during reconstruction and solidified after 1910.

In response to the constitutional convention, blacks held their own (the South African Native Convention) in Bloemfontein. This provided an important step toward the formation of a permanent national black political organization. Such an organization was finally founded on January 8, 1912, when the South African Native National Congress (from 1923 the African National Congress; ANC) came into existence. Parallel developments took place among politically conscious Coloreds and Indians. Their first nationally based organization was the African Political (later People’s) Organization, founded in Cape Town in 1902. Under the presidency of Abdullah Abdurahman, this body lobbied for Colored rights and had links at times with other black political groups.

In 1931, the British Parliament passed the Statute of Westminster, which removed the last vestiges of British legal authority over South Africa. The National Party ruled the country and derived its main support from Afrikaner farmers and intellectuals. It favored the enfranchised population, nearly all of whom were white, over the unenfranchised, all of whom were black. They agreed to provide massive support for white farmers, to assist poor whites by providing them with jobs protected from black competition, and to curb the movement of blacks from the reserves into the towns. In the 1930s, South Africa changed from a predominantly rural country that exported raw materials
and imported manufactured consumer goods into a country with a diverse economy. Although the standard of living for most whites improved greatly from this expansion, the lives of Coloreds, blacks, and Indians were hardly affected. The government did add some land to the reserves in 1936, but it never exceeded 13 percent of the area of the country. Until the end of apartheid, almost nine-tenths of South Africa—including the best land for agriculture and the bulk of the mineral deposits—belonged exclusively to whites. Unsurprisingly, conditions on the native reserves became progressively worse through
overpopulation and soil erosion. Education for blacks was left largely to Christian missionaries, whose resources, even when augmented by small government grants, enabled them to enroll only a small proportion of the black population.

Following a recession in the early 1960s, the economy grew rapidly until the late 1970s. By that time, owing to the efforts of public and private enterprise, South Africa had developed a modern infrastructure, by far the most advanced in Africa. It possessed efficient financial institutions, a national network of roads and railways, modernized port facilities in Cape Town and Durban, long-established mining operations producing a wealth of diamonds, gold, and coal,
and a range of industries. De Beers Consolidated Mines and the Anglo American Corporation of South Africa, founded by Ernest Oppenheimer in 1917, dominated the private sector, forming the core of one of the world’s most powerful networks of mining, industrial, and financial companies and employing some 800,000 workers on six continents. State corporations (parastatals) controlled industries vital to national security. South African Coal, Oil, and Gas Corporation (SASOL) was established in 1950 to make South Africa self-sufficient in petroleum resources by converting coal to gasoline and diesel fuel. After the United Nations (UN) placed a ban on arms exports to South Africa in 1964, Armaments Corporation of South Africa (Armscor) was created to produce high-quality military equipment. All white pariliamet secured the apartheid regime by passing many laws and supressed all opposition of the non-white population, working class and left politics. White population had all the wealth in the country and the economic and social gap between whites and non-whites became extreme.

African National Congress (ANC) Youth League emerged in the early 1940s, the ANC itself came to life under a vigorous president, Albert Luthuli, and three younger men—Walter Sisulu, Oliver Tambo, and Nelson Mandela. The South African Indian Congress, which had also been revitalized, helped the ANC organize a defiance campaign in 1952, during which thousands of volunteers defied discriminatory laws by passively courting arrest and burning their pass books. A mass meeting held three years later, called Congress of the People, included Indians, Coloreds, and sympathetic whites. To prevent further gatherings, the government passed the Prohibition of Political Interference Act (1968), which banned the formation and foreign financing of nonracial political parties. A fresh anti-pass campaign was launched in March 1960, and thousands of unarmed blacks invited arrest by presenting themselves at police stations without passes. At Sharpeville, a black township near Johannesburg, the police opened fire on the crowd outside a police station, killing at least 67 black protestors. Thousands of workers then went on strike, and in Cape Town some 30,000 blacks marched in a peaceful protest to the centre of the city. The government re-established control by force by mobilizing the army, outlawing the ANC and arresting more than 11,000 people under emergency regulations. After Sharpeville, it became clear that apartheid could never be overcome by peaceful means alone. PAC (The Pan-Africanist Congress) established an armed wing called Poqo, and the ANC set up its military wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe (“Spear of the Nation”), in 1961. These movements were supressed harshly by the goverment. A new phase of resistance began in 1973 when black trade unions organized a series of strikes for higher wages and improved working conditions. Stephen Biko and other black students founded the Black People’s Convention (BPC) in 1972 and inaugurated what was loosely termed the Black Consciousness movement, which appealed to blacks to take pride in their own culture and proved immensely attractive. Biko and some 500 people were killed in 1976 while protesting the regime. Starting from 1986 some international sanctions against the South African apartheid regime were established. Struggles between the regime and ANC were intensified until 1990. In 1990 Nelson Mandela released from many years of imprisonment. During the next year Parliament repealed the basic apartheid laws, lifted the state of emergency, freed many political prisoners, and allowed exiles to return to South Africa.

The most important domestic agency created during Mandela’s presidency was the Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), which was established to review atrocities committed during the apartheid years. It was set up in 1995 under
the leadership of Archbishop Tutu and was given the power to grant amnesty to those found to have committed “gross violations of human rights” under extenuating circumstances.

South Africa had entered the 21st century with enormous problems to resolve, but the smooth transition of power in a government that represented a majority of the people—something unthinkable less than a decade earlier—provided hope that those problems could be addressed peaceably. However the solutions did not come quickly. There were several long-term strikes, some of which resulted in violence—such as the 2012 incident at a platinum mine at Marikana, where police opened fire on striking miners and more than 34 people were killed and scores more were injured. The unemployment rate hovered around 25%. Many South Africans were disgruntled with the pace of progress of the ANC-led government and complained about inadequate service delivery and overall poor living conditions. President Zuma and the ANC also faced allegations of corruption. The wrongdoings of president Zuma continued until his resignation. In 2019 Cyril Ramaphosa was president.  The ANC garnered the most votes, but, with an electorate unhappy about the long-running culture of corruption and scandal, economic woes, and the racial inequality that continued to persist
more than two decades after the end of apartheid, the party’s win was by the narrowest margin since taking power.

Since its rebirth in 1994 following the end of its apartheid system, it has been playing influential roles at the subregional, continental and global levels. The country’s leadership profile and agendasetting capabilities within the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) attest to its influence at the subregional level. Specifically,
South Africa’s interventions in crises in subregional states have bolstered the country’s position or (as some analysts argue) its hegemonic or pivot status. South Africa is also a key player at the continental level. Although elements of have underpinned South Africa’s engagementsat the subregional, continental and global levels, the extent to which the country has been able to exert influence in the various spheres has varied considerably. Perhaps aware of the realities of its own limitations vis-à-vis the global stage, South Africa’s foreign-policy rhetoric prioritizes relations with Africa and the global South; this foreignpolicy context foregrounds the significance of South Africa’s roles on the continent – including within the African Union (AU) – and participation in the G20 and BRICS. As the only African country in the G20 and BRICS  South Africa is expected by other countries in the continent to endeavour to use its participation in these groupings to promote a pan-African agenda. In South Africa, however, membership of these‘elite clubs’ has been touted (from a nationalinterest) to project South Africa as the ‘gateway’ to Africa, the continent’s ‘voice’ at the global level, and the regional leader. In many ways, South Africa’s position in both international and regional politics has several attributions: emerging power, emerging middle power, soft power.

For South Africa, BRICS’s membership might be considered as an effort of “recasting” South Africa’s international relations after decades of isolation during the apartheid era.

 Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa constitute BRICS. It is an intergovernmental group, gathering these five major emerging national economies.

The central aim of BRICS is to lobby for the reform of the global trade, economic, and political systems.

Under the apartheid regime and despite the arms embargo, international sanctions, and the political,diplomatic, and economic isolation of the country,
South Africa’s foreign policy was oriented largely toward the North and in particular Europe and the United States, who were traditional partners
of the Union of South Africa. In determining its earliest foreign policy immediately following the abolition of apartheid, the African National Congress (ANC) openly adopted a diplomatic line that favored links with the South. This new focus resulted in the country increasingly joining bodies and groups that bring developing countries together, with South Africa actively seeking to play a leadership role in these groupings. As soon as apartheid came to an end, South African President Nelson Mandela announced that South Africa would thereafter
focus on strengthening South-South relations so as to counter any economic isolation.

From 1994 under Nelson Mandela, South Africa sought to enhance its position through such coalitions and expanded alliances with the G77 and the Non-Aligned Movement (among others) so as to break out of the isolation in which it had been trapped under the apartheid regime. South Africa then continued to position itself as a country of the South during Thabo Mbeki’s first presidency in 1998, rooting itself in Africa through the formation of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) and the strengthening of the former Organization
of African Unity into the African Union in 2002, including its regional African organizations. UnderThabo Mbeki, South Africa’s foreign policy was characterized by its closer engagement with emerging economic powerhouses such as Brazil
and a strengthening of the low-level relations that had been maintained with India and China. This mobilization was implemented with the Group O5 campaigning for membership of the G8 for Brazil, Mexico, India, South Africa, and China. Thabo Mbeki also proposed the formation of a G-South or G8-South grouping, to act as a counterweight to the traditional G8. One of the outcomes of this joint approach was the IBSA forum. This priority persisted under the
presidency of Jacob Zuma and was given form in 2009 through South Africa’s diplomatic activism toward entry to the BRIC forum.

Forums such as IBSA or BRICS met its priorities and foreign policy interests and allowed South Africa to project its identity as an emerging international player beyond being an accepted regional powerhouse in its immediate sub-region.
To this end, South Africa relied equally on active regional diplomacy together and an international focus while cultivating the image of being the principal African economic leader, spokesperson for the South, and bridge between North and South. This position meant adopting middle power strategies, relying on coalitions and diplomatic alliances in order to leverage political influence, with BRICS members sharing these diplomatic strategies. As a member of these emerging country forums, it was now possible for South Africa to create the image—even if only symbolically—of being the leading emerging African power.

The pivotal role South Africa,  raises a number of questions as regards the advantages the country might gain from membership of international organizations such as BRICS. At the economic level, the benefits could be limited. First of all, South Africa’s participation in BRICS and its positioning as gateway to emerging African economies creates a series of competitive challenges for its economy. Secondly, foreign investors are showing signs of weariness in the face of increasing labor costs, lack of technical expertise, and the specter of policies aiming at nationalizing mines raised by Jacob Zuma’s government, thus forewarning of state intervention in the South African business world.The third challenge is political. Although some emerging BRICS countries such as China rhetorically give South Africa priority as principal partner in their relations with other African states in clubs such as BRICS, pride of place is in fact given to bilateral relations as Chinese business and political leaders manage their political relations with African states directly from Beijing. Meanwhile, Russia is rethinking its strategy for economic and political involvement in Africa using links it maintained with several African states that had weakened during
the Cold War. In 2009, Russian president Dimitri Medvedev made presidential visits to Egypt, Nigeria, Namibia, and Angola, and was on each occasion accompanied by large delegations of business leaders. BRICS membership also raises doubts on its representative role of South Africa: The latter’s political
role as representative of African interests paradoxically results in its increasing isolation vis-à-vis its regional peers, who do not unquestioningly recognize its political leadership and regard South African initiatives as being driven mostly by its own national interests.