ULI453U-RUSSIA, CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASIA
Chapter 8: Turkey’s Relations with Russia, Central Asian and the Caucasus States
The Relationships with Russia
From a historical perspective, Turkey-Russia relations were formed in the competitive ground. With the fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Russian Empire in the early 1900s, relations dominated by rivalry and war have developed into a different dimension. Nevertheless, following the Second World War, the Cold War caused the two countries to be placed in enemy blocs and formed the basis for Turkish-Russian relations to return to a competitive environment.
Bilateral Relationships
It can be claimed that new bilateral relations emerged after the Cold War era. The dissolution of the Soviet Union sparked a thorough transition of relations. Since then, amid conflicts of interests in the mutually shared areas of their near-foreign nations, the mutual understanding has moved from the enemy state to rival regional strength.
In terms of security concerns, the 1990s were a period when ties were strained, while economic relations improved.
One of the concerns was Turkey’s relations with the Turkic states of Central Asia and the Caucasus. In terms of this concern, Turkey aimed to improve relationships with these states based on ethnic, linguistic, and cultural ties. In this sense, the fall of the Soviet Union prompted Turkey to establish a “Great Turkish World” discourse from the Adriatic to the Great Wall of China. In addition to this discourse, Turkey envisaged comprehensive relations with the CARs (the Central Asian Republics) on roads, energy, and communications.
After 1992, when Turkey recognized the Russian Federation, joint high-level visits began, and their friction eased. In 1999, another Joint Statement on the War against Terrorism was issued in this context.
Multidimensional Partnership
Ministerial-level visits have provided new perspectives on relations. In November 2001, the “Joint Action Plan for Cooperation in Eurasia,” which upgraded the bilateral relations to Multidimensional Partnership, was signed by both parties’ foreign ministers, İsmail Cem and Igor Ivanov Along with this plan, which was signed in the 9/11 climate, both states were eager to stress the importance of Eurasian cooperation after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Centre in New York, highlighting Turkey’s willingness to develop international cooperation against international terrorism.
Putin’s first visit to Turkey took place on 5-6 December 2004. Since the nominal head of the Soviet Union, Nikolai Podgorny, visited in 1972, this was the first presidential visit in the history of Turkish-Russian relations
The visit by Putin was the beginning of another period in relationships.
Enhanced Multidimensional Partnership
In Putin’s 2004 visit, Putin and Erdoğan signed the Joint Declaration on the Intensification of Friendship and Multidimensional. As a result of this joint declaration, the relations between both countries have gained another dimension with the official documents of “Enhanced Multidimensional Partnership.” In addition, to provide peace and stability in their neighboring areas, both states emphasized the importance of deepening mutual relations.
Aspects Of The Multidimensionality in the 2000s
Especially in the 2000s, the parties successfully evaluated the opportunities to establish cooperation in many fields from trade to culture to increase their relations to a multidimensional level. With the influence of the political will in power in the two countries, relations have gained a noticeable momentum despite some setbacks in the process.
Turkey-Russia Economic Relations
Economic and trade relations that form the basis for the Russian Federation’s relations reached their highest ($ 38 billion trade volume) during the AK Party era. In this sense, in the post-2002 period, Russia has become the most important trading partner of Turkey, and energy sources trade represents one of the most critical aspects of Russia’s relations. Nevertheless, especially from the 2000s, the increase in prosperity also increased Turkey’s oil and natural gas consumption. The lack of Turkey’s energy resources caused foreign dependence on energy sources.
In the 2000s, the cooperation in the field of energy with the Russian Federation has been extended to different areas. In this sense, new pipeline projects and nuclear power plant projects have moved to the next level. Especially Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant and TurkStream projects are remarkable examples of cooperation at this point. Besides, mutual investments between the parties have reached a significant level. The investments of Turkish companies operating in the Russian Federation are around 10 billion dollars. In contrast, Russian investments in Turkey in tourism, utilities, oil/gas processing, and storage operations’ total value around 10 billion dollars. When we evaluate it cumulatively, Turkish contractors, primarily investing in the construction sector, have implemented nearly 2000 projects with a total value of over 65 billion dollars in Russia so far.
Along with the increase since 2002, Turkey became the most visited country by Russian citizens. Unfortunately, in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea, the sanctions imposed on Russia and the Russian economy’s downturn led to a decrease in the number of visitors flowing to Turkey in 2015. Besides, the reason for the significant decline in 2016 is the downing of the Russian warplane by Turkish jets. When Turkey shot down the Russian warplane due to the violation of Turkish airspace on November 24, 2015, a severe crisis erupted. However,
prudence and balance in Turkey-Russia relations helped to overcome the crisis in about nine months. In this context, the rapid end of the crisis and the efforts to establish relations again provided a rapid rise of tourist flow to Turkey in the following years.
Turkey-Russia Political Relations
Although the beginning of the Putin era in Russia as of the 2000s did not cause a significant change in foreign policy understanding, Putin’s mentality of achieving the sphere of influence through economic influence reshaped Russia’s foreign relations. The failing economic infrastructures of the countries within the scope of Russia’s “near abroad” policy made Putin’s policy meaningful.
Putin’s policy of establishing relations with all the states that, as long as it does not negatively affect Russia’s interests, also provided Turkey-Russia relations’ progress. 9/11, which transformed the international system radically, created the block against terrorism worldwide. The USA, Russia, and Turkey’s involvement in this block revealed the opportunity for Russia and Turkey to work together.
With the understanding of Putin, who came to power in 2000, the multidimensional foreign policy understanding of the AK Party, which came to power after 2002, gave the results in a short time and made 2004 and 2005 very productive years for both sides. Moreover, Turkey announced that 2007 was the Russian Culture Year in Turkey, and Russia declared that 2008 was the Turkish Culture Year. The Presidents / Heads of State visits in 2009 were followed by establishing a High-Level Cooperation Council in 2010. Besides, both parties’ decision to abolish visas mutually in the same year is essential in showing how political relations developed during the AK Party period.
The most significant impact of the civil war in Syria on bilateral relations was realized with the Russian fighter jet’s shutdown. Economic and commercial relations, which were not shaken despite conflicts of interest in political matters, were deeply shaken as a result of this crisis.
A failed coup attempt on 15 July 2016 in Turkey helped the normalization of Turkey-Russia relations. Criticisms of the USA and EU over how Turkey handled the failed coup attempt increased tension in Turkey’s relations with the West. Thus, the tension with the West led to an acceleration of the normalization of Turkey-Russia relations. It accelerated the process of opening channels of dialogue between the two countries in the second half of 2016. So much so that President Erdoğan made his first abroad trip to Russia after July 15, on 9 August 2016, and had a two-hour meeting with Russian President Putin at the Constantine Palace. Less than a month after the Erdoğan-Putin meeting held on August 9, the two leaders
attended the G-20 Summit held in China on 3 September 2016 and held a two-hour meeting on several issues.
Turkey-Russia Security Relations
There have been two main issues on which Turkey and Russia have had ups and downs regarding the security aspect of the relations related to Syria and Libya. Despite the different priorities and visions in Syria and Libya, Turkey and Russia have managed these divergences so far. Cooperation has proven to be technically and mutually advantageous for both Turkey and Russia in Syria and Libya. Eventually, the cooperation has yielded another ground-breaking development: purchasing the Russian S400 air and missile defense system. As Turkey agreed to purchase the S400 air and missile defense system, the US warned that if the deal continues, the F-35 warplane program, the advanced US aircraft that will equip many NATO air forces decade, will be cut off from Turkey. However, Turkey has delivered the first shipment of a Russian S-400 Triumph air defense system, defying increasingly vocal warnings from the US that it faces sanctions over the $2.5bn acquisition. While Turkey aims to counterbalance its dependency on the West by developing close relationships with Russia, Turkey’s security cooperation closely with Russia’s culminates a new challenge for Turkey. Russia is projected to have a more than 13 percent supplier stake in Turkey’s weapons market by the time the S-400 agreement is concluded. That asymmetric dependency is one of the issues on which Turkey should be on the qui vive.
The Relationships with Central Asian and the Caucasus States
The Relationships with the Turkic States
Turkey’s initial attempt was to play the role of a big brother for these Turkic countries along with the USA’s support to prevent the Iranian influence in the region. Nevertheless, two obstacles hampered Turkey’s aim. Other regional powers were not willing to see the United States of America in the region through Turkey. However, the post-Soviet Turkic states had just explored the international system’s multipolarity. They did not want to rely on any single regional power.
It might be right to suggest that relations with the Turkic States are vital for Turkey. Therefore, during the 1990s, Turkey was too eager to strengthen these ties. Eventually, however, Turkey realized that establishing stable ties with Russia and Iran could become feasible. In this context, Turkey has to approach the region from a holistic viewpoint. In this respect, since 2002, Turkey’s foreign policy course has substantially contributed to this understanding. Strengthening ties with Russia and Iran and telling them that Turkey is no longer an obstacle but a bridge for them is Turkey’s new foreign policy path. In doing so, the focus on its own democratic and liberal market principles is another policy to capture the “hearts and minds” of the Turkic people.
The Relationships with Georgia
Turkish-Georgian relations, free from political issues, grow in accordance with the values of equality and non- interference in domestic affairs. A quarter of a century of strategic cooperation between the two countries has resulted in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) natural gas pipeline, the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway construction, and the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) as a sign of strong bilateral relations.
The Relationships with Armenia
On 16 December 1991, Turkey was one of the first states to recognize Armenia. Moreover, shortly after that, because of severe economic problems, Turkey provided humanitarian aid to Armenia. Following these friendly ties, Turkey welcomed Armenia to participate, as a founding member, the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). In particular, they had friendly relations during the first two to three years of Armenia’s first president, Levon Ter-Petrossian. Nonetheless, Turkey closed its doors to Armenia after the annexation of Nagorno- Karabakh by Armenia in April 1993.
On 10 October 2009, the two countries signed “Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations” and “Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations” in Zurich to normalize bilateral relations between Armenia and Turkey to open a closed border between both countries. The protocols provide a mechanism to normalize bilateral relations. On 23 April 2010, however, Armenia suspended the ratification process of the Protocols. While no formal diplomatic ties between Turkey and Armenia have been formed at present, diplomacy has continued behind the scenes. Nevertheless, the latest war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, which began on 27 September 2020, revealed that the Turkish-Armenian relations had been derailed, and the revival is not yet on the horizon.