ULI453U-RUSSIA, CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASIA
Chapter 7: Foreign Policies of the Caucasus Republics
Foreign Policy of Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan, the richest in terms of natural resources among the Caucasus republics, became independent after the Cold War, and it also has the largest population of about 10 million. Azerbaijan also has 86.600 square kilometers of territory, which is also the largest among the Caucasus republics. Azerbaijan has proven oil reserves of 7 billion barrels. Most of the Azerbaijani oil is extracted from the Azeri, Shiraq, and Güneşli oil fields operated by the Azerbaijan International Petroleum Consortium. Azerbaijan has 1.3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.
Azerbaijan faced a severe threat to its territorial integrity, and independence came with the shadow of the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict, which also impacted Azerbaijan’s internal stability. Ayaz Müttelibov was the first President.
Azerbaijan signed the Alma-Ata Declaration on December 21, 1991, the approval of Azerbaijan’s Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) membership was rejected by the Parliament formed under the Azerbaijan Soviet. After the genocide committed by Armenians in Khojaly on February 25-26, 1992, Müttelibov resigned on March 6, 1992. Elchibey was elected as President on June 7, 1992. He supported close cooperation with Turkey and also with all Turkic World. Elchibey also gave priority to Turkey for the extraction and transportation of Azerbaijan’s energy resources. He confirmed the transition to the Latin alphabet.
Even though Azerbaijan and Russia signed the Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Trust Agreement during Elchibey’s visit to Russia on 12 October 1992, Russia took a stand against Elchibey’s Presidency since Elchibey was against the Russian military presence in Azerbaijan and he supported pipeline projects bypassing Russia. Azerbaijan and Russia signed an agreement in which Russian forces would be withdrawn from Azerbaijan’s territory.
After the Abulfez Elchibey Era, Heydar Aliyev’s presidency started. He tried to establish good relations with Russia, and Azerbaijan became a member of the CIS. The ceasefire in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 1994 provided the opportunity to utilize Azerbaijan’s energy resources. As a result, the Oil Contract of the Century was signed with the International Oil Consortium in September 1994. Aliyev gave a 10 % share to the Russian company Lukoil. Aliyev thought that if the Russian Company were included in the process, Russia would not interfere with the energy extraction and transportation projects.
After Heydar Aliyev passed away, İlham Aliyev became president in 2003. The İlham Aliyev era has been considered the continuity of the Heydar Aliyev era in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a major issue in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. More than one million people had been internally displaced, and 20 % of Azerbaijan territory had been occupied, and more than 25,000 lives lost due to the conflict. In February 1988, during the Soviet era, Armenians started demonstrations and attacked Azerbaijani Turks demanding that the NagornoKarabakh be put under Armenia’s jurisdiction. The Supreme Soviet of the USSR rejected the demand. Violence against the Azerbaijani Turks in NagornoKarabakh caused a demonstration in Baku. On 15 January 1990, Moscow sent troops, and hundreds of people died. This incident was called “Black January” in Azerbaijan. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the conflict became a regional problem.
The Armenian forces occupied Azerbaijan’s towns and cities. One of the most crucial losses for Azerbaijan was the fall of Khojaly. On 25- 26 February 1992, the Armenian forces attacked the town, killing 613 civilians and hundreds were missing and wounded.
The peace process for the settlement of the conflict instituted by OSCE Minsk Group has not been successful. One of the critical steps came in December 1996 with the OSCE Lisbon Summit in which a set of principles were accepted which recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
There have been ceasefire violations from time to time. One of the important violations arising from the Armenian side turned into conflict on April 2-5, 2016, in which Azerbaijan took back three strategically important hills. For Azerbaijan, it has a psychological victory beyond the territory that was liberated. That incident was also important for Azerbaijan since Armenia realized that members of the EEU and CSTO could not help in the case of the ceasefire violations.
Ceasefire violations from the Armenian side continued from time to time, causing civilian casualties.
Azerbaijan responded to the Armenian aggression to end the occupation of territories and conducted military operations starting September 27, 2020. Azerbaijan became quite successful, and it became clear that Armenia miscalculated the capacity of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan showed confidence to end the Armenian occupation
Successful military operation led to the liberation of Azerbaijan’s occupied territories one by one and a deal was signed on 10 November 2020. This has been a victory for Azerbaijan. According to the deal Aghdam district shall be returned to Azerbaijan before 20 November 2020. Kelbajer shall be returned to Azerbaijan before 15 November 2020 and Lachin before 1 December 2020. Russia shall deploy a peacekeeping contingent along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin corridor, which consists of 1960 military personnel with small arms, 90 armored personnel carriers and 380 units of the automobile and special equipment. Russia’s peacekeeping
contingent shall be deployed for five years with automatic extension by further five-year periods if none of the Parties declares six months before the expiration of the period of its intention to terminate the application of this provision. One of the most important aspects of the deal for Azerbaijan is that internally displaced persons and refugees shall be returned to the territory of Nagorno- Karabakh and adjacent districts. Another important article is that parties agreed unblocked all economic and transport links in the region. Armenia would provide for transport communication between the western regions of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan to organize an unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles, and goods in both directions. Control over transport shall be exercised by the Border Guard Service bodies of the Federal Security Service of Russia
Azerbaijan-US Relations
In the first years of the post-Cold War era, Azerbaijan’s relations with the US focused on safe transportation and extraction of energy resources. The US supported the East-West energy corridor. Despite this, the US did not object to Russian involvement in the region’s energy politics since the US followed “Russia First policy” after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The US’s main aim in the region was to prevent Iranian involvement in energy projects. The security dimension was emphasized in the US policy in the Caucasus after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks
Besides the negative impact of the Armenian lobby in the US, the organizational problems in the US policy making towards the Caucasus, especially in the first five years of the independence of the Caucasus Republics, restricted development in Azerbaijan-US relations. The US Agency for International Development and the State Department held responsible for supporting activities, especially for democratic development in the new republics. However, there was a lack of coordination and strong direction among departments.
Azerbaijan-Russia Relations
Russian Federation emerged as a successor of the Soviet Union after the Cold War era. Russian foreign policy and its view about the Caucasus directly impacted Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia. Russian “Near Abroad” policy has considered the Caucasus an inseparable part of the Russian national interest.
Starting from the foreign policy concept introduced in 1993, Russia envisaged Russia’s more active role in security and economic affairs in the Near Abroad
Besides, six Russian soldiers accused of being involved in the Khojaly genocide were caught by the Azerbaijani security forces. Five of them were sentenced to death, while one was sentenced to 15 years in prison. The soldiers stated that they are mercenaries and take part in Special Forces affiliated with the Russian 7th Army in Armenia. The 366th Regiment in Khankendi was disbanded because the opinions alleged that the Russian
forces helped the Armenian forces and intervened in the massacres.
Russia’s strategy was to gain control over both Azerbaijan and Armenia by using the Karabakh problem. The Russian administration was aware that Russia’s military presence depended on Armenian’s perception of the Azerbaijan threats. As long as the occupation of Azerbaijani lands continues, Armenia would have the idea that Azerbaijan could resort to armed force to take the occupied territories. In this case, Russia was the only military guarantor for Armenia.
Azerbaijan-Turkey Relations
Azerbaijan and Turkey relations are described as One Nation Two States. Turkey was the only state to support Azerbaijan since the beginning of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkey used all diplomatic means to stop the occupation of Azerbaijan territories, and Turkey even closed its land border with Armenia due to the continuing Armenian aggression. The two countries are tied to each other with energy lines; Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum natural gas pipeline, and TANAP. Baku-TbilisiKars railway also provides a rail connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan’s relations with Turkey have been perfect in all periods despite some minor fluctuations. The most serious incident that shacked Azerbaijan-Turkey relations was the normalization process between Turkey and Armenia and the two countries’ protocols in 2009. Azerbaijan was disappointed that Turkey’s border with Armenia would be opened when the protocols were ratified without the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement.
Azerbaijan-Iran Relations
Azerbaijan’s relations with Iran have been affected by the developments in the NagornoKarabakh conflict, Azerbaijani Turks in Iran, and energy issues. During Elchibey’s Presidency in Azerbaijan, Iran was disturbed by the emphasis on Southern Azerbaijan and had a closer policy to Armenia than Azerbaijan. Although Heydar Aliyev became the President of Azerbaijan, Iran’s policy towards Azerbaijan has softened somewhat, Iran continued supporting Armenia in the NagornoKarabakh conflict. Armenia was a trump card that could be used by Iran. However, the continuing occupation of the Armenian forces created problems for Iran after a while.
Azerbaijani Turks in Iran preferred Iranian support of Azerbaijan in the NagornoKarabakh conflict. The Iranian actions to help Armenia caused demonstrations in Azerbaijani Turks’ places, as did happen during Azerbaijan’s military operations to end the occupation started on 27 September 2020.
Azerbaijan also developed its relations with Israel in many fields, including the military one, which caused worry in Iran regarding its regional positions.
Transportation of Caspian Energy Resources
Azerbaijan had close relations with Georgia and chose the pipeline to be built through Georgia. According to the project, a 1450 km pipeline was built from Baku to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. In the International Oil Consortium, the Turkish State Oil Company TPAO has just a 1.75 % share.
After the talks with Azerbaijan, a 5 % share from Azerbaijan’s SOCAR was transferred to TPAO in April 1995, and as a result, TPAO had a 6.75 % share in the Azerbaijan International Oil Consortium.
The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline has an important place for Azerbaijan’s foreign policy, and it has political and economic implications. Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia got even closer with the operation of the pipeline. Azerbaijan chose its natural gas resources also to be transported to the international markets through Turkey. The Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline became operational in 2005. TANAP (Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline) became operational in 2018. TANAP’s connection with Europe was opened in November 2019. TANAP is 1850 kilometer pipeline would carry 16 billion cubic meter gas and 6 billion of it would be used by Turkey and 10 billion cubic meters would go to Europe.
Azerbaijan’s relations with other energy-rich states of the region are also important in terms of evaluating the politics of energy.
Foreign Policy of Armenia
When Armenia gained its independence, the most important foreign policy problem was the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict, which affected Armenia’s relations with its neighbors as well as with Russia and the US. Armenia has experienced a foreign policy process that is open to the effects of the diaspora as well as its internal dynamics. Armenia’s first President, Levon Ter-Petrosian, was elected despite some diaspora organizations’ negative campaign.
After the Ter-Petrosian, Robert Kocharian became President of Armenia in April 1998. He is of Karabakh origin and belongs to the so-called Karabakh Clan.
After Kocharian, Sargsyan became the President of Armenia in 2008. Sargsyan was born in Khankendi/Karabakh, and he also belonged to the “Karabakh Clan.” Therefore the Sargsyan era Armenian foreign policy was considered a continuation of the Kocharian era.
After the Sargsyan era, Pashinyan came to power following street protests and movements that caused a “Velvet Revolution’’ in Armenia in 2018. Pashinyan was elected as Prime Minister on 8 May 2018. While he came to power, he was supposed to make radical changes in Armenia since Pashinyan challenged the Karabakh Clan in Armenian domestic politics. However, Pashinyan’s foreign policy has not been so different from his
predecessor. Pashinyan was against the Armenian government’s decision to join the EEU and accused Russia of undermining Armenia’s national security. However, he gave up the idea of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EEU and the CSTO when he came to power. Pashinyan even argued that Armenia’s relations with Russia would become even closer during his rule.
Armenia-US Relations
Armenia’s relations with the US should be analyzed with the Armenian diaspora’s unique role and influence. The two major lobbying organizations in the US are the Armenian Assembly of America (AAA) and the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA). These organizations have increased their influence in certain periods by using the advantages of operating in the US system for many years. Although there are some differences between the lobby organizations, they agree on the US policy’s basic parameters towards Armenia.
Regarding Armenia’s relations with the US, there were high expectations with the rule of Pashinyan since he came to power after the political struggle against the Karabakh Clan. Their members are being known for their strong ties with Moscow. The US administration’s expectations that the new Armenian administration would change Armenia’s foreign policy have not been realized. Armenia’s involvement in Syria has been perceived by the US to legitimize the Russian intervention in Syria. The US is also not comfortable with the Armenian threat of attack to the pipelines in the region since that type of threat gives Russia the chance to question the West’s energy security regarding Azerbaijan’s energy resources carried from these pipelines.
Armenia-Russia Relations
Armenia’s relations with Russia have been described as a strategic partnership since the independence of Armenia. Armenia played an essential role in the Russian policy in the Caucasus.
Armenia’s relations with Russia would be a priority for Armenian foreign policy. Russian factor impacts every aspect of Armenia. Russia is also the first trading partner. Armenia’s exports to Russia were 719.72 million USD in 2019. Armenia’s import from Russia was 1.48 billion USD.
Armenia-Turkey Relations
Armenia’s relations with Turkey have been problematic since its independence. Even though Turkey recognized Armenia’s independence after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, normal diplomatic relations could not be established. The reasons are that Armenian policy of working for the international recognition of “genocide” allegations, which is considered one of the objectives of Armenia’s foreign policy, Armenia’s refrained from openly recognizing the territorial integrity of Turkey and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and continuing occupation of the territory of Azerbaijan.
Armenia-Iran Relations
Armenia’s relations with Iran became vital for Armenia in the time of regional crises such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the August 2008 Russian-Georgian conflict. Iran provided a lifeline for Armenia as the Iranian border was the only open border for Armenia during the RussianGeorgian conflict in August 2008. Iran’s security concern regarding its northern neighbor Azerbaijan due to the Azerbaijani Turk population of its own impacted Iran’s policy towards the NagornoKarabakh conflict. Armenia also carried out projects with Iran in the energy and transportation fields. The natural gas pipeline between Armenia and Iran was opened in March 2007.
Foreign Policy of Georgia
Among the Caucasus republics, Georgia has been under threat of its territorial integrity. Georgia is open to external influences with its demographic structure and geographical position. Georgia, with a population of 3.9 million and a territory of 69,700 square kilometers and has a coastal country to the Black Sea. Although Georgia is not rich in natural resources, it is on the Caspian energy resources’ transit route.
In May 1991, Zviad Gamsakhurdia became the first President of Georgia, and he opposed Georgia’s membership of the CIS. Russia supported the efforts to overthrow the Georgian government and destabilize Georgia using Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Adjara problems. Gamsakhurdia’s nationalist policy using the slogan of “Georgia belongs to Georgians” also caused discomfort in autonomous regions.
In January 1992. Eduard Shevardnadze, became president. In 2003, after the parliamentary elections, big demonstrations started in the country, and a state of emergency was declared. Shevardnadze met with opposition leaders, and he resigned. This movement in Georgia has been called the “Rose Revolution.” Saakashvili won the Presidential Elections held on January 4, 2004, became the third president of Georgia after independence. Saakashvili supported Georgia’s integration with the West and its membership in NATO and the EU.
Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Adjara Problems Abkhazia
On 21 April 2008, after Georgia accused Russia of shooting down an unmanned Georgian plane flying over Abkhazia, Russia increased the number of its troops in the region. On May 9, 2008, Georgia Deputy Prime Minister Giorgi Baramidze declared that the war between Russia and Georgia could break out tonight, tomorrow, anytime. The process reached a war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008. After that, Russia recognizes Abkhazia’s independence.
South Ossetia
The increasing tension in the relations between Russia and Georgia since 2006 has gradually reduced the prospects for a solution to the South Ossetian problem. As a result,
on 6 August 2008, conflicts began, which resulted in Russian recognition of South Ossetia’s declaration of independence.
Adjara
During Saakashvili’s administrations, the situation in Adjara came on the agenda with the demonstrations in Batumi. After the demonstrations started, the Russian Security Council Secretary, Sergei Ivanov, came to Batumi and met with Abashidze. Then Abashidze went to Moscow and took refuge in Russia. After Abashidze left, the Georgian army entered Adjara. During the Saakashvili era, Georgia had control there
Russia-Georgia Conflict
The conflict first started between Georgia and South Ossetia forces. On 7 August 2008, Georgia announced that its forces took control in Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. In a short time, Russian forces clashed with the Georgian forces, Georgians in South Ossetia started to leave the region.
To stop the conflict between Russia and Georgia, French President Sarkozy stepped in on behalf of the EU. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner submitted a six-point declaration of principles. Although the Declaration stated the start of international discussions about stability and security measures in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Georgia-US Relations
Among the Caucasus republics, which gained their independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia has come to the fore as a transit country of Caspian energy resources for the US foreign policy. Georgia’s relations with the US have been further developed, especially after the September 11 terrorist attacks. Georgia permitted its air space to be used for military operations in Afghanistan. The US military personnel also had permission to enter Georgia without a visa with the cooperation agreement
Georgia-Turkey Relations
Georgia became important for Turkey’s regional policy since Azerbaijan’s energy resources reached Turkey through Georgia. Besides the energy lines, there are also railway connections with the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway line.
Georgia-Iran Relations
In terms of Georgia, especially when problems with Russia were experienced, Iran was seen as a country that would help ease Russia’s pressure. Especially in the period of Russian pressure in the field of energy, Georgia sought agreements with Iran at the point of purchasing natural gas.