ULI453U-RUSSIA, CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASIA
Chapter 5: Foreign Policies of the Central Asian States
Introduction
Central Asia, which is part of the Silk Road, has always been an area of interest for its great powers. From the 15th century onwards, the Silk Road lost its importance due to geographical discoveries. However, in the 19th century, the struggle between the British Empire, which held India, and the Russian Empire, which had occupied Central Asia, turned the region into a field of the game called “Great Game.” This struggle was resolved by creating Afghanistan as a buffer state.
In 1991 the region came back to the world stage after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Central Asian States (CAS) of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan became independent with the Soviet Union’s collapse. Due to vast natural resources, the region became the contention scene between the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, Turkey, Iran, and India, which is called a New Great Game.
History
The Bolshevik revolution leaders believed in modernization theory according to which history progresses in a linear model from primitive to modern societies, reaching communism at the end. One of the general features of this process was the tendency to substitute “ethnic” or “tribal” identities to give way to a common civic national identity. The main legacy of the Soviets in Central Asia was the creation of five national states in the region historically known as Turkistan; they wanted to divide Turkistan. They considered both Pan- Turkism and Pan-Islamism as threats, which dividing Turkistan would limit these threats.
By creating five Soviet states in Turkistan, the Soviets defined the nationalities in these states: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The haphazardly drawn borders did not reflect the ethnic groups living in these states. Soviets made Kyrgyzstan- Uzbekistan Tajikistan borders look like a jigsaw puzzle, and enclaves and exclaves were created to make border issues even more complicated. Many interstate border conflicts after independence originate from this era.
The Soviets considered Turkistan a traditional and tribal society and wanted to create modern nations. In some cases, nationalities were invented. Thus, all of the present- day states in Central Asia are Soviet-made. Under the Soviets, the local languages and cultures were systematized and codified, and their difference were demarcated and encouraged. In 1940 new Cyrillic writing systems were introduced to break links with Turkey and Iran.
Stalin changed ethnic minorities’ policies significantly in the 1930s–1940s with Russification’ initiation, abolishing the national institutions, killing local, national intellectuals, and ethnic deportations. During and after the
Second World War, millions of ethnic groups, mostly from Caucasus and Crimea, were expelled to Central Asia without warning the local authorities, further complicating the region’s ethnic structure. Among them were Koreans, Germans, Poles, Finns, Ukrainians, Greeks, Armenians, Chechens, and Ingush, Karachay and Meskhetian Turks, Crimean Tatars. In 1954, more Slavs were brought to CA and settled in Kazakh land under the program called “Virgin Lands.” These deportations changed CA’s ethnic and religious structure and caused many ethnic clashes during and after the Soviet eras. The regions of Central Asia within the Soviet borders became industrialized, but the Soviets created dependencies between countries in terms of energy, transportation, and agriculture. Millions died in compulsory nationalization programs and during the Second World War.
After the Independence
As a result of the Perestroika and Glasnost policies of Gorbachev, Soviet Union loosened its grip on the republics; ethnic conflict and independence movements gained momentum. Central Asian Republics declared independence one after another: Kyrgyzstan on 31 August 1991, Uzbekistan on 1 September 1991, Tajikistan on 9 September 1991, Turkmenistan on 27 October 1991, and Kazakhstan on 16 December 1991. All CAS joined the CIS by signing Almaty Protocol on December 21, 1991. The referendum was held on March 17, 1991, with Kazakhstan 95.00%, Kyrgyzstan 95.98%, Tajikistan 96.85%, Turkmenistan 98.26%, and Uzbekistan 94.73 of votes in favor of staying in the Soviet Union.
Since the time of independence, Russia has been the most influential external power in Central Asia. Moscow had close connections with all the existing Central Asian governments. It continued to maintain tens of thousands of troops in the region and have very close economic ties. They feared that Islamic radicalism would spread throughout Central Asia and into the predominantly Muslim regions of Russia. Four CAS (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) signed the CIS Collective Security Treaty (CSTA) with Russia on May 15, 1992. Treaty prohibited member republics from having a security pact with other states which are not part of the CIS Collective Treaty.
There were several reasons for the Central Asian States to rely on Russia for security: First, they did not have the expertise or resources to establish their defense system. Second, the ruling elites in these countries wanted Russia to help them stay in power. Third, there was still a significant Russian population in CASs, especially in Kazakhstan.
The newly established CAS confronted many problems left over from the Soviet era. For example, unsolved economic problems continued from the Soviet Union to the new states. There were major crises in the social, cultural, education, and health fields. To resolve border issues, three CAS joined Russia and China to establish the
“Shanghai Five” in 1996. The Shanghai Five consists of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. Uzbekistan joined as the sixth member, and all six heads of state signed the Declaration of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) on 15 June 2001. The SCO Convention on fighting terrorism, religious extremism, and separatism was adopted in 2001 and the Regional Anti-terrorist Structure (RATS). These three goals are designed to keep the Turkic and Muslim populations of China and Russia under control.
CA countries’ second problem was the breakdown of regional systems of energy, transportation, and agriculture. Soviets created dependencies among CAS in terms of energy, transportation, and agriculture. After independence, individual states had to rely on themselves or resolve it involving neighboring states. New roads, dams, and electricity grids were needed to be built. The need for investment made CAS vulnerable to international influence. The third issue was cross-border waters. Water management has been the cause of frequent conflicts and tensions between countries.
Alliances and Regionalism in Central Asia
One would have expected more cooperation among CAS after the independence, given how interconnected they were in many areas. However, the efforts to establish unity in Central Asia throughout the 1990s showed less success. There were several reasons: First, the leadership of CAS could not agree on long-standing issues such as water, border, energy, and agriculture. Second, CAS relations with each other were affected by the personalities of the leaders. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan competed to be the leader of the region. The conflict between Nazarbayev and Karimov prevented a summit in Central Asia for many years. The third reason for the lack of unity is that the outside powers, mainly Russia, have tried to prevent any integration and regional alliances among CAS.
Great Powers and The Central Asian States
After independence, CAS attracted great Powers due to holding mostly untapped natural resources, especially in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The competition started between Russia, China, the USA, Europe, and India to get concessions in the hydrocarbon reserves, which geopolitical analysts call the New Great Game.
United States of America
When the Soviet Union collapsed, the United States government has actively promoted democratization in Central Asia. Besides democratization, US oil companies were interested in oil and gas reserves. After the September 11, 2001 attack, the US interest focused on security and established several military bases in CAS to help Afghanistan’s war effort. However, the USA began to lose its influence especially after the region’s color revolutions and its gradual withdrawal from Afghanistan after 2010.
US Military Bases in Central Asia
The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001, had a significant impact on Central Asia. Afterward, the region became a U.S. ally in the global war on terror, and Western troops were deployed in several Central Asian countries. Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan governments allowed the US to open military bases in their countries. In contrast, Kazakhstan. In 2011, American diplomacy put forward an alternative integration project - the New Silk Road (NSR) concept. It is based on uniting Central and South Asia into a single economic macro-region; the center of this integration was Afghanistan. Turkmenistan only allowed U.S.-led coalition flights over its territory to combat the Taliban in Afghanistan. In practice, the United States has implemented only a few local projects under this initiative.
Thus, Washington’s attempts to influence Central Asia are discordant with the United States’ real contribution to the region’s economic life and are aimed not so much at the progress of the region at undermining its cooperative ties with Russia. Russia and China favor the stability and continuation of the status quo in the countries of CAS. On the other hand, the USA and the EU are in favor of democratization and regime change.
There is widespread negative public opinion in Central Asia that the United States inspired the so-called 2003 “Rose Revolution” in Georgia, the 2004 “Orange Revolution in Ukraine,” the March 2005 “Tulip Revolution” in Kyrgyzstan, and the May 2005 unrest in Andijan (Uzbekistan). Allegations about such a conspiracy are mostly based on assertions that US-based organizations provided funds to local non-governmental organizations.
Russia
The Russian policy towards Central Asia could be explained by constructivist and (neo)realist theories. Constructivism is best manifested in the geopolitical discourse of civilizational Eurasianism. The main concern of the Russian foreign policy behavior in Central Asia is, however, based on security more than anything else. In order to maintain its influence in the region, Russia also benefit from regional economic and security organizations such as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Russia is the primary receiver of labor migration from CAS. For example, in 2017, official data estimated that about two million labor migrants had arrived in Russia from Uzbekistan, a little less than a million from Tajikistan, and about 400,000 from Kyrgyzstan.
Russian Military Bases in CA
The 201st Military Base, which is the largest Russian military base outside the Russian Federation, is hosted by Tajikistan. Because of Tajikistan’s long borders with
Afghanistan, Tajikistan has been the main, and arguably the most important, focus of Russian security policy in Central Asia. Russia successfully secured the Tajik government-led, mainly by the former communist elites with a pro-Moscow orientation. Behind Russia’s security concerns in Central Asia lies Afghanistan, which has been in perpetual war since the Soviet invasion in 1979. Soviets were defeated and humiliated in the hands of American supported Mujahideen. Afghanistan became at the center of international relations when the US attacked the country after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack in the USA.
Worried about US long term plans in Central Asia, Russia increased its security measures in Central Asia. Today, Kyrgyzstan hosts four Russian military facilities: Kant Air Base, the 338th naval communication center, the 954th torpedo testing range, and a seismographic station. Russia has maintained critical military installations in Kazakhstan, too: The Balkhash radar station was established against southeastern threats during the Soviet Union and functioned as part of Russia’s missile attack warning system. The Sary Shagan antiballistic missile testing range is still in use today. The Baikonur Cosmodrome, the world’s first and largest space launch facility located in southern Kazakhstan, has been leased to Russia till 2050.
China
When the Soviet Union collapsed China became neighbors with three out of five newly independent CAS: Kazakhstan with 1,700 km, Kyrgyzstan 1,000 km, and Tajikistan 400 km. To ensure border security, China initiated the Shanghai Five Forum mentioned above. Moreover, China could not be a new great game player due to still developing its economy. Nonetheless, China made its first oil investment in Kazakhstan in 1997. As China developed economically and its energy needs increasing, Chinese relations with CAS became economical.
To diversify its export roads, China launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI, a Silk Road project proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 in Kazakhstan, is a major transportation network and economic initiative that includes Asia, Europe, and Africa. This comprehensive investment project can be seen as an economical move by China to Europe on land and sea. During the last 20 years, China became the dominant economic player in CA. China is now the destination for about 22 percent of all Central Asian exports and the source of 37 percent of its imports. The countries of Central Asia are in an asymmetrically dependent trade relationship with China.
However, along with Chinese investment, Central Asia’s debt is growing. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are the most vulnerable to the Chinese debt trap. Moreover, the Chinese mistreatment of Uyghurs in Eastern Turkistan has been a thorny issue among the Turkic population of CAS
if not among governments. To overcome xenophobia of Chinese among CAS, China has focused on soft power activities in recent years.
European Union
After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the EU aimed to establish secular, liberal, and democratic orders in the region’s countries. The EU initiated the TRACECA Programm (Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia) involving eight countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia. European Union is one of the leading trade partners of the CAS. This particularly applies to Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan, where the EU accounts for more than 50% of foreign trade turnover and 48% of foreign capital invested in its economy.
In addition, Kazakhstan became the first state in Central Asia to establish an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the EU. However, the EU appears as normative soft power compared to traditional formidable powers such as Russia and China. The EU failed to promote democracy, the rule of law, human rights among the CAS.
Foreign Policy of CAS
Kazakhstan
Although it is a relatively new state in international politics, Kazakhstan has become an active actor in the international community with its policies. Nursultan Nazarbayev’s worldview and personality were also influential in these policies.
The most critical factor affecting Kazakhstan’s foreign policy is its geopolitical position. Kazakhstan is the largest country in Central Asia, with 2.7 million km2 territory and a 19 million population. Kazakhstan, which has no access to open seas, has long borders with Russia and China. The international initiatives of these two great powers affect the foreign relations of Kazakhstan. On the other hand, Kazakhstan’s natural resources such as oil and natural gas, have attracted other major powers’ attention, especially the USA and the European Union. The guidelines stated in the Kazakhstan 2050 Strategy speech by the President for the people of Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan wanted to establish and have good relations with major powers and its neighboring Central Asian countries. For this reason, a multi vector foreign policy approach has been official adopted for the recognition and reputation of Kazakhstan, and this policy is still in force. New President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev issued a new Foreign Policy Concept on March 6, 2020. The new concept repeats the principles from the old concept but adds new principles: The promotion of building a stable, fair and democratic world order.
Kazakhstan was the only CAS that possessed nuclear weapons. It inherited 1,400 nuclear weapons from the Soviet Union and transferred them all to Russia by 1995.
“What Kazakhstan got in return was substantial U.S. aid for the technical work of getting rid of the weapons, and more generally, a status as a responsible member of the international community – international recognition, respectability, investment, and security” (Kucera, 2013). Kazakhstan has since complied with the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty.
Kyrgyzstan
The political and geopolitical position of Kyrgyzstan is critical. It is a landlocked mountainous country with few natural resources. Kyrgyzstan is one of the smallest countries in Central Asia in terms of territory (199,950 km2) and population (6.6 million) and the smallest GDP ($8.4 billion). However, Kyrgyzstan has a comparative advantage in terms of water resources. The country’s water resources are vital for cotton and grain production in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
Among CAS, Kyrgyzstan has been the most liberal, democratic, and open to the world. Being a democratic country, there is no continuity of political course, and the risks of political instability and the spread of radical ideology remain high. Kyrgyzstan first earned fame as an “island of democracy in Central Asia” (Anderson, 1999) and then as a “failing state” (Laruelle et al., 2019).
The current Foreign Policy Concept of the Kyrgyz Republic was adopted on March 11, 2019. It emphasizes the Kyrgyz Republic’s unique role in Central Asia as a bridge between Europe and Asia. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan is pursuing a pragmatic, balanced, open, multi-vector, and consistent foreign policy. Kyrgyzstan heavily borrowed from China between 2010 and 2018 to finance infrastructure projects, creating a debt trap condition. China owns 43.2 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s total public debt. Kyrgyzstan turned firs to Beijing, not Moscow, for debt relief as the coronavirus pandemic devastated its economy.
Tajikistan
Tajikistan, like Kyrgyzstan, is a poor, landlocked mountainous country with a population of 9.5 million. With no substantial hydrocarbon resources, Tajikistan’s economy is based on agriculture and services; it exports cotton and aluminum and is dependent mainly on foreign aid and the remittances of labor migrants.
The country borrowed heavily over the years, mostly from China. Tajikistan’s total volume of external debt by July 1, 2017, was $ 2.3 billion, or 35.8% of GDP. Despite its linguistic and historical proximity to Iran, the country shared the common destiny of other states in the region. Russia remains the primary conductor in the security sphere, while China is the principal investor. According to experts, modern Tajikistan faces three main issues:
• The persistence of a latent threat from religious extremism and social explosion;
• The situation in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region; • The problem of the Rogun HPP.
Turkmenistan
With a population of about 5.5 million people, Turkmenistan has the richest hydrocarbon resources in CA. It ranks fourth in natural gas. The place of Turkmenistan in the geopolitics of Central Asia is currently determined by the following factors: significant interaction with foreign countries on energy issues, diversification of hydrocarbon supplies, creation of reliable and multivariate transport and logistics infrastructure, and the growing terrorist threat emanating from the territory of neighboring Afghanistan.
Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan is also a landlocked country located at the heart of CA with 30 million people, making it the most populous country in Central Asia. It is the only country that has borders with the other four CAS and Afghanistan. Uzbekistan had a functioning agricultural sector and relatively abundant resources. Security concerns originating from the geopolitical position and mercantilist ideology determined Uzbekistan’s foreign policy till the death of former president Islam Karimov in 2016.
When political disorder broke out in eastern Uzbekistan in the city of Andijan in June 2005, Uzbek officia responded with force, even attracting more criticism from the West. As a result, Uzbekistan asked the USA to close its military base in Uzbekistan. After severing ties with the West, Uzbekistan got closer to Russia and joined the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) in 2006. However, Russian leaders have linked security and economic cooperation after the Russian-Georgian conflict and Uzbekistan suspended its membership in 2008. Uzbekistan found the perfect partner as China entered the New Great Game with the SCO.
In September 2016, Islam Karimov died, and Shavkat Mirziyoyev became the new president of Uzbekistan, and a new era started in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy. Compared to Karimov, Mirziyoyev established better interpersonal relations with world leaders and has been more active in foreign relations. However, in terms of foreign policy principles, not much has changed. Tashkent’s foreign policy is a unique experience in the post-Soviet era, aimed at preserving and strengthening the republic’s real independence.
Conclusion
The CAS have been operating in the international arena since 1991. Since then, CAS developed their own versions of foreign policies originating from their geopolitical situation, natural resources, economic needs, regime survival, and great power demands. Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan base their foreign policy engagement strategies mainly on their economic potential to get the
best deal for hydrocarbon resources. CAS had no interest in coordinating their foreign policy objectives as a region, therefore failing to solve regional problems among themselves. Although there were hopes and initiatives of regional integration under the Central Asian Cooperation Organization, leaders’ rivalry prevented it from developing further.