ULI451U-CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Chapter 2: Understanding and Analysing Armed Conflicts
Introduction
Armed conflicts could be described based on their causes. When 34 comprehensive peace agreements signed in the post-Cold War period examined, findings demonstrate that although most peace processes are generally described as security assurance and one of the a key conditions for peacebuilding, there were significant differences in the contents of peace agreements; and the main elements of these contents are the perceived dynamics of conflicts.
Some factors from demographics to the socio-political and economic features of a population usually state that peace is a context-based phenomenon and also can be described based on how it is lived, authorized, and represented in everyday lives”. In other words, conflict analysis is crucial for both international security studies and peace studies because peace can be supported if only the dynamics and the development within violent conflicts are understood exclusively. Therefore, identifying the different sources and forms of violence can be considered as the key to the success of a peace process. In this chapter, two main components of conflict analysis are presented: sources and forms of conflicts.
The Concept of Armed Conflict
If we were to define war, it would be ways to focus on three main characteristics
a. Its size - it means at least 1,000 battle deaths except the indirect victims such as victims of shift, deprivation or illness. b. Preparation - it involves large scale movement and preparation. c. Legitimation - it is legitimized by a government.
Because of the rising of the globalization and breakdown of the hectic world order, between civil wars and the Cold War was described as the serious turning point in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Global change has affected global networks politically, economically, and culturally. Therefore, the whole concept of the state sovereignty in international relations has shifted. Factors such as the global interconnectedness, capitalism, and political power of neo-liberalism have considerably contributed to the decline of state revenues, extensive organized crime, and political acceptability.
Sources of Violent Conflicts
Sources of violent conflicts cab summarized as the following:
Cultural Factors
a. Ethnicity b. Religion c. Legacies of Colonialism
Social/Economic Factors
a. Poverty b. Inequality c. Political System
Contemporary Issues
a. Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons b. Environmental Degradation
Forms of Violence
A limited definition of violence may focus on only physical and concrete violence, however; there is in fact a variety of forms of violence and each has a strong
influence on human behavior. There are a number of forms of violence suggested by scholars:
a. Physical violence: Physical violence can be defined as violence that harms the human body or physical objects. b. Psychological violence: Psychological violence refers to the types of action that might affect human psychology. c. Intended violence: In this type of violence, the ‘intention’ or ‘purpose’ of one’s behavior can be described as more important than the results of his/her behavior. d. Unintended violence: It refers to the type pf violence that is considered as harming someone unintentionally. e. Manifest violence: It could be defined as violence that are observable. f. Latent violence: It refers to potential violence that may not yet be apparent. g. Direct violence: Direct violence indicates armed hostile action which can be traced to a perpetrator. h. Structural violence: It includes the manipulation of the structures and institutions that are present in society by people/groups in order to overpower others. i. Cultural violence: It has strongly related to the everyday activities and perceptions of a social group.
Tools for Conflict Analysis
The conflict analysis aims to understand:
a. The historical background of the conflict and violence, b. The main players involved, c. Its origin of causes, reasons for actors to involve in the conflict, d. The impact of the conflict and responses to solve the conflict.
Some of the most used conflict analysis tools are:
Stages of Conflict
Refers to having a historical understanding of the conflict.
Timelines
Demonstrates events plotted against a particular timescale.
Conflict mapping
Purpose of conflict mapping is to show the relationships between parties in the conflict.
The ABC (Attitude, Behavior, and Context) Triangle
It purposes to understand how these three sets of factors are related to and influence on each other and how they are related to the needs and fears of each actor.
The Onion
It focuses on the premise of Needs, Interests, and Positions for each actors to the conflict.
The Conflict Tree
The conflict tree purposes to order key conflict issues by employing the image of a tree.
Force-Field Analysis
Force-Field Analysis aims to shows what forces affect a conflict differently, how they are prolonged, what role they play in sustaining that conflict, how negative factors could be declining while positive ones could be reinforced.
Pillars
Pillars variety of issues that grasp the unstable situation in the way it is.
The Pyramid
It can be used to classify what these pillars are so that they could be eliminating or their effects would be diminished. The pyramid aims to categorize the key parties to the conflict in Top, Middle, and Grassroots levels.
Case Studies: Analysis of the Conflicts in Liberia and El Salvador
Case Study – I
Liberia: Throughout the literature, it could be said that the roots of the conflict were multifaceted and influenced by different regional and national actors, internal social dynamics, issues of marginalization, privilege and the distinct forms of patron-client networks.
In addition, the role of ethnicity, spiritual initiation, ideology, social anomaly, and socialization into violence issues can be described as causes of conflict. Ethnicity played an important role in the shape of factions, the Krahn–Mandigo association forged under the regime of Samuel Doe, was reunited in the form of a joint opposition rebel front of the United Liberation Movement of Liberia for Democracy (ULIMO) formed from among banished Krahn and Mandingo soldiers, politicians, and civilian refugees in Sierra Leone in 1994.
Opposition to Taylor also crystallized at an international level, with US and regional governments especially Sierra Leone and Guinea, taking lead in financing and providing bases for operations by anti-Taylor elements, which resulted in the formation of two new insurgencies between 2000 and 2002, namely the Liberians United for Reconciliation (LURD) and Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL).
Case Study-II: El Salvador
In 1838, El Salvador became an independent state in which the ranks of power were controlled by a small number of landlords, known as ‘Los Catorce’ (the 14 families). In the late 1920s, coffee constituted over 90% of the country’s exports, creating giant wealth for a few families in the urban economy.
However, the situation for peasants in the countryside was depressing due to extreme poverty, deprivation, and political oppression. Because the economy was only based on coffee, the country’s political framework was controlled and consequently influenced by a unstable coffee price. The worldwide economic depression of the 1930s decreased the prices of coffee. Therefore, peasants lost their small wages and then they were forced to live their lives in a total poverty.
After fighting the ‘soccer war’ with its neighbor, Honduras in July 1969, over disputed border areas and friction caused by a large population of Salvadorans who had emigrated there in search of land and employment, the political situation in El Salvador worsened further in the 1970s, which witnessed the creation of the military leadership’s own party, the National Conciliation Party (PNC).
During 1980s a series of important political changes happened in El Salvador. For example, the formation of the ARENA by D’Aubuisson in September 1981 and the 1983 constitution which reinforced human rights and democratic structures as well as organizing labor rights, especially for agricultural workers.
All these cases imply that the inheritances of colonial powers became one of the main sources of the conflicts.